Two years after the Cannabis Act took effect, one of Germany’s largest survey series shows no measurable increase in cannabis consumption. A research team led by Düsseldorf addiction researcher Daniel Kotz and Hamburg health scientist Jakob Manthey analyzed data from 35,957 individuals. Neither past-year consumption nor daily use showed statistically significant changes after April 1, 2024.
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Cannabis Consumption After Legalization: What the Study Measured
The study appeared in the International Journal of Drug Policy on September 11, 2026. It is based on 23 survey waves between April 2022 and April 2026—roughly two years before and two years after the reform. Respondents aged 14 to 64 were surveyed. Overall, 2,302 individuals reported using cannabis at least once in the twelve months before their interview. Across all waves, this represented 6.4 percent of the sample.
The researchers did not simply compare before-and-after numbers. They modeled the pre-reform trend and tested whether that trend broke after the cutoff date. They used segmented logistic regression with a potential break point starting from the first complete survey wave after April 2024. Analysis covered the full sample, men and women separately, and two age groups: 14 to 24 years and 25 to 64 years. The team also examined the proportion of daily or near-daily users among all cannabis consumers.
No Trend Break, Even Among Youth
The findings are clear-cut. None of the coefficients for trend change after the reform were statistically significant—all p-values were 0.15 or higher. This held true for the general population, both genders, and notably for the younger age group. Law critics had predicted a sharp increase, particularly regarding youth protection. Intensive consumption also remained stable. Only before the reform did a slight downward trend appear in daily use among consumers.
To rule out chance findings, the authors conducted placebo tests, artificially shifting the reform date to other time points. These sensitivity analyses supported the main result. The team draws a cautious conclusion: the reform was not associated with a change in consumption prevalence during the first two years.
What the Findings Mean—and What They Don’t
This study joins a series of similar results. The longitudinal study from the University of Trier with 605 adults found no notable consumption increase. The new analysis carries greater weight because it includes nearly 36,000 respondents and tracks the trend even before the reform. A similar pattern appears in data from eight years of legal retail in California.
This is no blank check. The study measures frequency, not consequences. It says nothing about cannabis origin, black market share, or health harms. Other data present a more mixed picture—for example, research showing a moderate increase in adult hospital admissions. Additionally, these are repeated cross-sectional surveys, not longitudinal tracking of the same individuals over four years. The authors explicitly recommend continuing observation with additional data sources, since effects might emerge later.
Funding context matters too. Kotz received support from the Federal Ministry of Health, according to conflict-of-interest statements. Four of the five authors work on EKOCAN, the official evaluation of the Cannabis Act. This team also recently critically assessed the consumption ban in cultivation associations.
Momentum for the Cannabis Law Debate
Politically, the study arrives at a sensitive moment. Opposition parties continue calling for amendments, while Bavaria pushes for a cannabis tax. Anyone seeking to reverse the law based on a consumption surge must now answer to this data. Germany has debated for years whether legalization drives use. The 2017 debate between Rainer Thomasius and Bernd Werse centered on exactly this question. For the first two years, a robust answer now exists. What comes next remains a task for ongoing evaluation, detailed in our overview of Cannabis Act evaluation findings.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did cannabis consumption rise in Germany after legalization?
According to the Kotz study, not measurably. In the first two years after April 1, 2024, neither past-year consumption nor daily use showed a statistically significant trend break.
How many people were surveyed for this study?
Data from 35,957 individuals aged 14 to 64 across 23 survey waves from 2022 to 2026 were analyzed. Of these, 2,302 reported cannabis use in the preceding twelve months.
Do these results apply to youth and young adults?
Yes. Researchers specifically examined the 14-to-24-year-old group. No significant trend change appeared after the reform in this age cohort either.
Does this study prove the Cannabis Act has no effects?
No. The study only measures consumption frequency. It does not address health consequences, cannabis sourcing, or long-term effects. The authors recommend extended observation using additional data sources.
Where was this study published?
The work appeared in the International Journal of Drug Policy on September 11, 2026, a peer-reviewed journal. It is available under DOI 10.1016/j.drugpo.2026.105501.
Überrascht dich, dass der Cannabiskonsum nach der Legalisierung stabil blieb?
Sources: Kotz D, Manthey J, Klosterhalfen S, Steinhoff P, Viechtbauer W: Cannabis use prevalence before and early after partial legalisation in Germany. International Journal of Drug Policy, September 11, 2026, DOI 10.1016/j.drugpo.2026.105501 (PubMed 42727136); Hanfjournal, October 1, 2026.
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